Closing spread
LA -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.149
- 42.4%Success rate52.2%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.155EPA / rush+0.021
- 5.5%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.72CPOE+1.65
- 39.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.53Points / drive2.67
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 15/24 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/32 | 281 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 60 | 2 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.94