2025 · Week 9

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

10·34

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -14

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRams
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.149
  • 42.4%Success rate52.2%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.235
  • -0.155EPA / rush+0.021
  • 5.5%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.72CPOE+1.65
  • 39.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.67
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2023 · W16NO @ LA22–30RAMS
2022 · W11LA @ NO20–27NO
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · playoffsLA @ NO26–23RAMS
2018 · W9LA @ NO35–45NO
2017 · W12NO @ LA20–26RAMS
2016 · W12LA @ NO21–49NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–LA
NOQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:011288Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 6:183-6Punt0–7
LAQ1 4:5334Punt0–7
NOQ1 3:5639Punt0–7
LAQ1 2:211354Touchdown0–13
NOQ2 11:28749Field goal3–13
LAQ2 7:50365Touchdown3–20
NOQ2 6:2533Punt3–20
LAQ2 5:271073Missed field goal3–20
NOQ2 0:54659Touchdown10–20
LAQ2 0:0700End of half10–20
LAQ3 15:001680Touchdown10–27
NOQ3 5:14317Turnover10–27
LAQ3 4:021052Touchdown10–34
NOQ4 12:40657Turnover on downs10–34
LAQ4 9:4332Punt10–34
NOQ4 7:09627Turnover10–34
LAQ4 5:33624End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough15/2417611
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill4307.50
Alvin Kamara6142.30
Devin Neal3113.70
Tyler Shough122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed59680
Chris Olave34570
Juwan Johnson34311
Brandin Cooks23160
Alvin Kamara1330
Devin Neal1110

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3228140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams251144.61
Blake Corum13584.50
Puka Nacua133.00
Matthew Stafford4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua78951
Davante Adams57602
Terrance Ferguson23540
Davis Allen34370
Tyler Higbee34131
Xavier Smith23120
Colby Parkinson22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.94