Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.057
- 47.5%Success rate40.6%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.97CPOE-3.67
- 37.0%Third-down rate36.3%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.72
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/24 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 15 | 104 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/37 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 23 | 112 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.51