Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
54
Model margin
+0.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play+0.054
- 45.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.131
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.050
- 12.4%Explosive rate11.4%
- +4.74CPOE-1.32
- 38.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 2.37Points / drive2.27
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/32 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 87 | 17.4 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 7 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 28/43 | 354 | 2 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.67