2017 · Week 12

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

20·26

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

LA -2.5

Total

54

Model margin

+0.7est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRams
  • +0.092EPA / play+0.054
  • 45.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.131
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.050
  • 12.4%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +4.74CPOE-1.32
  • 38.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.27
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9NO @ LA10–34RAMS
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2023 · W16NO @ LA22–30RAMS
2022 · W11LA @ NO20–27NO
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · playoffsLA @ NO26–23RAMS
2018 · W9LA @ NO35–45NO
2016 · W12LA @ NO21–49NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–LA
LAQ1 15:00759Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 10:53418Punt0–7
LAQ1 8:301131Field goal0–10
NOQ1 3:02275Touchdown7–10
LAQ1 2:1432Punt7–10
NOQ1 0:3939Punt7–10
LAQ2 14:13535Punt7–10
NOQ2 12:04520Punt7–10
LAQ2 8:40886Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 4:22744Field goal10–17
LAQ2 0:58637Missed field goal10–17
NOQ3 15:0054Punt10–17
LAQ3 12:3432Punt10–17
NOQ3 11:03723Punt10–17
LAQ3 6:50724Field goal10–20
NOQ3 3:373-4Punt10–20
LAQ3 2:31665Field goal10–23
NOQ4 14:111167Field goal13–23
LAQ4 10:05525Turnover13–23
NOQ4 8:3135Punt13–23
LAQ4 7:551352Field goal13–26
NOQ4 2:27785Touchdown20–26
LAQ4 1:4500End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/3224610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara58717.41
Mark Ingram11312.80
Drew Brees155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara661011
Ted Ginn711710
Michael Thomas58520
Willie Snead1190
Coby Fleener1280
Mark Ingram2350
Tommylee Lewis0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff28/4335421
Cooper Kupp0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley17744.40
Tavon Austin5173.40
Jared Goff3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp8111160
Sammy Watkins49821
Todd Gurley47540
Tyler Higbee33480
Josh Reynolds46371
Pharoh Cooper1290
Gerald Everett1190
Tavon Austin34-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.67