2023 · Week 16

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

22·30

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -4

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRams
  • -0.015EPA / play+0.042
  • 42.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.94CPOE-3.54
  • 39.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.13
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9NO @ LA10–34RAMS
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2022 · W11LA @ NO20–27NO
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · playoffsLA @ NO26–23RAMS
2018 · W9LA @ NO35–45NO
2017 · W12NO @ LA20–26RAMS
2016 · W12LA @ NO21–49NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–LA
NOQ1 15:00838Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:241594Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 2:28927Turnover on downs0–7
LAQ2 13:32650Field goal0–10
NOQ2 10:23514Punt0–10
LAQ2 8:21840Missed field goal0–10
NOQ2 3:53363Touchdown7–10
LAQ2 2:2832Punt7–10
NOQ2 1:41523Turnover on downs7–10
LAQ2 0:56558Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 0:2110End of half7–17
LAQ3 15:00972Field goal7–20
NOQ3 11:10621Turnover7–20
LAQ3 8:27541Touchdown7–27
NOQ3 5:42744Turnover on downs7–27
LAQ3 2:39966Field goal7–30
NOQ4 12:441275Touchdown14–30
LAQ4 6:33520Punt14–30
NOQ4 4:33235Touchdown22–30
LAQ4 3:53419End of half22–30

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr27/4031931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara9192.10
Jamaal Williams284.00
Rashid Shaheed144.00
Derek Carr221.00
Taysom Hill221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave9131230
Rashid Shaheed59701
Juwan Johnson47481
A.T. Perry11351
Alvin Kamara56160
Foster Moreau12130
Keith Kirkwood1190
Jamaal Williams1150

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3432820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams221044.71
Ronnie Rivers6203.30
Puka Nacua2168.00
Cooper Kupp1-3-3.00
Matthew Stafford1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9111641
Demarcus Robinson66821
Cooper Kupp612520
Tyler Higbee33300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.77