Closing spread
LA -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play+0.042
- 42.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.94CPOE-3.54
- 39.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.82Points / drive2.13
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 27/40 | 319 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 9 | 13 | 123 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/34 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 22 | 104 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 11 | 164 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 12 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.77