Closing spread
NO -3
Total
55
Model margin
+1.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.156
- 50.8%Success rate49.9%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.284
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.011
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.24CPOE+5.42
- 45.0%Third-down rate46.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.63Points / drive2.94
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/40 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/40 | 249 | 2 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 13 | 96 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Garrett Griffin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.34