2018 · CON

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

26·23

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

55

Model margin

+1.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Nothing filed.

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSaints
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.156
  • 50.8%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.284
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.011
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.24CPOE+5.42
  • 45.0%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.63Points / drive2.94
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9NO @ LA10–34RAMS
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2023 · W16NO @ LA22–30RAMS
2022 · W11LA @ NO20–27NO
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · W9LA @ NO35–45NO
2017 · W12NO @ LA20–26RAMS
2016 · W12LA @ NO21–49NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NO
NOQ1 15:001056Field goal0–3
LAQ1 10:0433Turnover0–3
NOQ1 8:3536Field goal0–6
LAQ1 7:0632Punt0–6
NOQ1 5:26863Touchdown0–13
LAQ1 1:351362Field goal3–13
NOQ2 9:4535Punt3–13
LAQ2 8:08618Punt3–13
NOQ2 5:2069Punt3–13
LAQ2 1:52781Touchdown10–13
NOQ2 0:2300End of half10–13
LAQ3 15:003-4Punt10–13
NOQ3 14:051271Touchdown10–20
LAQ3 8:341172Touchdown17–20
NOQ3 3:06628Punt17–20
LAQ4 14:493-6Punt17–20
NOQ4 12:2243Punt17–20
LAQ4 10:55890Field goal20–20
NOQ4 5:03857Field goal20–23
LAQ4 1:41845Field goal23–23
NOQ4 0:1500End of half23–23
NOOT4-6Turnover23–23
LAOT415Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/4029711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson16442.80
Josh Reynolds11616.00
Todd Gurley4102.51
Jared Goff3103.30
Robert Woods2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks781070
Josh Reynolds47740
Gerald Everett24500
Robert Woods611330
Tyler Higbee44251
C.J. Anderson1150
Todd Gurley1330

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/4024921
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram9313.40
Alvin Kamara8151.90
Taysom Hill100.00
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara1113960
Ted Ginn36580
Michael Thomas47360
Josh Hill11240
Garrett Griffin22121
Tre'Quan Smith13100
Mark Ingram2260
Austin Carr1150
Taysom Hill1121
Tommylee Lewis0100
Dan Arnold0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.34