Closing spread
LA -2
Total
52.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.001
- 47.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.172EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.92CPOE-1.88
- 43.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 2.45Points / drive1.95
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17/30 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3/5 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/28 | 283 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 9 | 120 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.14