NFL Intelligence

2019 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

9·27

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LA -2

Total

52.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

OutSheldon RankinsDTAchilles· Limited
LimitedRyan RamczykTThigh

Rams

DNPTodd GurleyRBNot Injury Related

Win probability

Rams
Saints

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRams

+0.084EPA / play+0.001
47.0%Success rate44.3%
+0.172EPA / dropback+0.089
-0.067EPA / rush-0.159
9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
+3.92CPOE-1.88
43.9%Third-down rate38.8%
58.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
2.45Points / drive1.95
0.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. LA are 15-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2025 · W9	NO @ LA	10–34	RAMS
2024 · W13	LA @ NO	21–14	RAMS
2023 · W16	NO @ LA	22–30	RAMS
2022 · W11	LA @ NO	20–27	NO
2018 · playoffs	LA @ NO	26–23	RAMS
2018 · W9	LA @ NO	35–45	NO
2017 · W12	NO @ LA	20–26	RAMS
2016 · W12	LA @ NO	21–49	NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	NO–LA
NO	Q1 15:00	5	22	Turnover	0–0
LA	Q1 12:25	7	57	Field goal	0–3
NO	Q1 8:42	4	21	Punt	0–3
LA	Q1 6:37	7	7	Punt	0–3
NO	Q1 3:29	8	13	Punt	0–3
LA	Q2 15:00	3	1	Punt	0–3
NO	Q2 14:21	6	30	Field goal	3–3
LA	Q2 11:06	12	64	Turnover	3–3
NO	Q2 6:02	7	20	Turnover on downs	3–3
LA	Q2 2:39	6	44	Field goal	3–6
NO	Q2 0:03	0	0	End of half	3–6
LA	Q3 15:00	3	9	Punt	3–6
NO	Q3 14:05	9	42	Field goal	6–6
LA	Q3 9:49	10	80	Touchdown	6–13
NO	Q3 5:39	3	-12	Punt	6–13
LA	Q3 3:37	5	26	Touchdown	6–20
NO	Q3 1:00	10	71	Field goal	9–20
LA	Q4 10:58	5	85	Touchdown	9–27
NO	Q4 8:37	8	34	Punt	9–27
LA	Q4 5:43	6	10	Punt	9–27
NO	Q4 2:22	3	3	Punt	9–27
LA	Q4 1:47	0	0	End of half	9–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Teddy Bridgewater	17/30	165	0	0
Drew Brees	3/5	38	0	1

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Alvin Kamara	13	45	3.5
Latavius Murray	5	7	1.4
Teddy Bridgewater	2	5	2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
Michael Thomas	10	13	89
Tre'Quan Smith	3	3	49
Jared Cook	2	7	25
Latavius Murray	1	1	16
Taysom Hill	2	3	16
Alvin Kamara	1	3	15
Deonte Harty	1	1	-7

Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Jared Goff	19/28	283	1	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Todd Gurley	16	63	3.9	1
Malcolm Brown	6	37	6.2	0
Robert Woods	1	9	9.0	0
Cooper Kupp	1	6	6.0	0
Brandin Cooks	1	2	2.0	0
Gerald Everett	1	0	0.0	0
Jared Goff	4	-2	-0.5	1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Cooper Kupp	5	9	120	0
Brandin Cooks	3	4	74	1
Robert Woods	2	2	33	0
Tyler Higbee	2	3	21	0
Gerald Everett	3	4	21	0
Malcolm Brown	1	1	10	0
Todd Gurley	3	4	4	0
Josh Reynolds	0	1	0	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
Home-field advantage+1.74
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential+0.08
Expected margin-0.14