Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.037
- 41.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.69CPOE+1.61
- 40.2%Third-down rate40.9%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.57Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 11/18 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryce Perkins | 5/10 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Perkins | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 62 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/25 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/3 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 6 | 102 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24