2022 · Week 11

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

20·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSaints
  • -0.083EPA / play-0.037
  • 41.2%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.109
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -2.69CPOE+1.61
  • 40.2%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.59
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9NO @ LA10–34RAMS
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2023 · W16NO @ LA22–30RAMS
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · playoffsLA @ NO26–23RAMS
2018 · W9LA @ NO35–45NO
2017 · W12NO @ LA20–26RAMS
2016 · W12LA @ NO21–49NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NO
LAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:4939Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:01515Punt0–0
NOQ1 8:50831Field goal0–3
LAQ1 4:14162Touchdown7–3
NOQ1 4:00517Punt7–3
LAQ1 1:0932Punt7–3
NOQ1 0:11749Touchdown7–10
LAQ2 12:111140Turnover on downs7–10
NOQ2 5:2338Punt7–10
LAQ2 3:131297Touchdown14–10
NOQ2 0:1900End of half14–10
NOQ3 15:00975Touchdown14–17
LAQ3 10:233-7Punt14–17
NOQ3 8:40568Touchdown14–24
LAQ3 5:471270Field goal17–24
NOQ4 14:48954Field goal17–27
LAQ4 9:06631Punt17–27
NOQ4 6:1639Punt17–27
LAQ4 3:363-16Punt17–27
NOQ4 1:4835Punt17–27
LAQ4 1:23434Field goal20–27
NOQ4 0:0600End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford11/1815920
Bryce Perkins5/106400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers14614.40
Bryce Perkins5397.80
Kyren Williams7365.10
Darrell Henderson294.50
Matthew Stafford144.00
Brandon Powell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tutu Atwell11621
Allen Robinson45471
Tyler Higbee48450
Van Jefferson35410
Brandon Powell22160
Kyren Williams1280
Ben Skowronek1440

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/2526030
Taysom Hill1/31400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill9525.80
Alvin Kamara12423.50
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00
David Johnson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave561021
Alvin Kamara45470
Juwan Johnson34471
Jarvis Landry34331
Adam Trautman33120
David Johnson11110
Taysom Hill1180
Rashid Shaheed1280
Marquez Callaway1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.24