2005 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -11.5
Total
38
Model margin
+6.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.014
- 34.0%Success rate41.3%
- -0.265EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.083
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 25.0%Third-down rate43.1%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 0.94Points / drive1.80
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.058
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 8/16 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 89 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rasheed Marshall | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 13/20 | 252 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 3 |
| Ladell Betts | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.41