2020 · Week 14

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

23·15

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge map49ers
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.010
  • 42.1%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.32CPOE-1.74
  • 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.03
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SF
SFQ1 15:00633Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:5746Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:25511Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:09725Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 5:10852Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 0:4732Punt0–7
SFQ2 15:00629Punt0–7
WASQ2 12:2435Punt0–7
SFQ2 10:563-9Punt0–7
WASQ2 9:34634Field goal3–7
SFQ2 5:4521Turnover3–7
WASQ2 5:03513Field goal6–7
SFQ2 3:0632Punt6–7
WASQ2 2:44414Turnover6–7
SFQ2 1:5029Opp touchdown13–7
SFQ2 0:58620Punt13–7
WASQ2 0:0500End of half13–7
WASQ3 15:001072Field goal16–7
SFQ3 10:053-7Punt16–7
WASQ3 8:47827Punt16–7
SFQ3 4:451168Opp touchdown23–7
SFQ4 15:001160Touchdown23–15
WASQ4 10:183-2Punt23–15
SFQ4 8:38526Punt23–15
WASQ4 6:1430Punt23–15
SFQ4 5:2039Punt23–15
WASQ4 3:5039Punt23–15
SFQ4 2:40518Turnover on downs23–15
WASQ4 1:3800Punt23–15
SFQ4 0:01122End of half23–15

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith8/195701
Dwayne Haskins7/125100
Isaiah Wright0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.D. McKissic11686.20
Peyton Barber12373.10
Cam Sims155.00
Dwayne Haskins4-12-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas67430
Terry McLaurin26240
J.D. McKissic24180
Isaiah Wright1190
Cam Sims1280
Steven Sims1350
Peyton Barber2310
Jeremy Sprinkle0100
Robert Foster0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens25/4526011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert14654.60
Jeff Wilson11312.81
Deebo Samuel Sr.199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk10161190
Kendrick Bourne37420
Richie James33330
Ross Dwelley22200
Jordan Reed25130
Jeff Wilson13130
Raheem Mostert2450
Charlie Woerner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

39.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.08