2020 · Week 14
Final
State Farm Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.010
- 42.1%Success rate45.8%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.32CPOE-1.74
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.76Points / drive2.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 8/19 | 57 | 0 | 1 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 7/12 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 4 | -12 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 25/45 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 10 | 16 | 119 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Richie James | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
39.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.08