2017 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -12
Total
46
Model margin
+0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.051
- 41.2%Success rate40.8%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.27CPOE+1.00
- 39.5%Third-down rate32.5%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.75Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 19/36 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 4/11 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/37 | 330 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 16 | 33 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mack Brown | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 5 | 105 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Mack Brown | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+0.30