2017 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brian Hoyer

24·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

WAS -12

Total

46

Model margin

+0.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.051
  • 41.2%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.203
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -3.27CPOE+1.00
  • 39.5%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.61
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–WAS
WASQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 10:1469Punt0–7
WASQ1 7:5134Punt0–7
SFQ1 6:473-3Punt0–7
WASQ1 5:30518Punt0–7
SFQ1 1:5235Punt0–7
WASQ1 0:331159Touchdown0–14
SFQ2 9:47628Punt0–14
WASQ2 8:38423Turnover0–14
SFQ2 6:39523Punt0–14
WASQ2 5:15770Field goal0–17
SFQ2 1:511177Touchdown7–17
SFQ3 15:001142Field goal10–17
WASQ3 9:4168Punt10–17
SFQ3 7:12622Missed field goal10–17
WASQ3 3:2216Turnover16–17
SFQ3 3:0611Touchdown17–17
WASQ3 3:011572Field goal17–20
SFQ4 10:34516Punt17–20
WASQ4 8:221079Touchdown17–26
SFQ4 3:28675Touchdown24–26
WASQ4 1:5836Punt24–26
SFQ4 0:52940Turnover24–26
WASQ4 0:0300End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard19/3624511
Brian Hoyer4/113400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde13282.22
Matt Breida4215.30
Raheem Mostert11616.00
C.J. Beathard11414.00
Marquise Goodwin166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aldrick Robinson25661
Pierre Garcon512550
Carlos Hyde56470
George Kittle48460
Marquise Goodwin25260
Matt Breida24150
Garrett Celek12130
Trent Taylor25110

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins25/3733021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson16332.10
Kirk Cousins4266.51
Samaje Perine9232.60
Jamison Crowder11111.00
Mack Brown221.00
Niles Paul1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Thompson451050
Vernon Davis34650
Ryan Grant35390
Jordan Reed45370
Samaje Perine33241
Terrelle Pryor35230
Jamison Crowder35150
Mack Brown11110
Josh Doctson13111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +127.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.48
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+0.30