2022 · Week 16

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

20·37

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge map49ers
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.084
  • 40.9%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.021
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.41CPOE-1.99
  • 34.9%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.20
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SF
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:24950Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 8:4144Punt0–0
SFQ1 6:513-2Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:201879Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ2 9:32799Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 6:26610Punt0–7
SFQ2 3:0310Turnover0–7
WASQ2 2:57835Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 0:2212End of half7–7
SFQ3 15:00776Touchdown7–14
WASQ3 10:3834Punt7–14
SFQ3 8:5943Punt7–14
WASQ3 7:4249Turnover on downs7–14
SFQ3 5:43234Touchdown7–21
WASQ3 4:52475Touchdown14–21
SFQ3 2:46457Field goal14–24
WASQ4 14:562-8Turnover14–24
SFQ4 14:04311Field goal14–27
WASQ4 12:0223Turnover14–27
SFQ4 11:1938Field goal14–30
WASQ4 9:161182Touchdown20–30
SFQ4 5:25833Touchdown20–37
WASQ4 2:13752End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke13/1816621
Carson Wentz12/1612310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson22582.60
Jonathan Williams3134.30
Antonio Gibson5102.00
Curtis Samuel122.00
Taylor Heinicke2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin45771
Jahan Dotson69761
Curtis Samuel55521
Logan Thomas68350
Jonathan Williams23280
Antonio Gibson23210
Brian Robinson0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy15/2223421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray-Ray McCloud17171.01
Christian McCaffrey15463.11
Tyrion Davis-Price9303.30
Brock Purdy166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle681202
Brandon Aiyuk57810
Jauan Jennings23210
Christian McCaffrey22120
Ray-Ray McCloud0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.17
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.75