2022 · Week 16
Final
Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.084
- 40.9%Success rate46.1%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.021
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.41CPOE-1.99
- 34.9%Third-down rate45.1%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.48Points / drive2.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 13/18 | 166 | 2 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 12/16 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 22 | 58 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/22 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 71 | 71.0 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 120 | 2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.17
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.75