2013 · Week 12

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

27·6

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -5.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.058
  • 41.8%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.065
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.63CPOE-3.92
  • 37.8%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.37
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–WAS
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:59514Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:1939Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:00412Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:1830Punt0–0
SFQ1 6:13762Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 2:54522Turnover7–0
SFQ2 15:00447Field goal10–0
WASQ2 12:091263Field goal10–3
SFQ2 6:4335Punt10–3
WASQ2 4:551062Field goal10–6
SFQ3 15:00310Turnover10–6
WASQ3 13:5449Turnover on downs10–6
SFQ3 12:06660Touchdown17–6
WASQ3 9:253-6Punt17–6
SFQ3 7:4546Turnover on downs17–6
WASQ3 6:04413Punt17–6
SFQ3 3:35544Touchdown24–6
WASQ3 1:053-9Punt24–6
SFQ4 14:481029Field goal27–6
WASQ4 9:0151Punt27–6
SFQ4 6:20518Punt27–6
WASQ4 2:38522Turnover on downs27–6
SFQ4 1:3900End of half27–6

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick15/2423530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13312.40
Colin Kaepernick9202.20
Anthony Dixon3134.30
Kendall Hunter8121.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin56942
Vernon Davis47701
Mario Manningham47450
Vance McDonald11230
Frank Gore1230
LaMichael James0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III16/2611801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris14523.70
Robert Griffin III4276.80
Roy Helu7263.70
Josh Morgan199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon811480
Josh Morgan45360
Santana Moss34270
Roy Helu1170
Logan Paulsen0200
Aldrick Robinson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.17