2013 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
SF -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.058
- 41.8%Success rate42.2%
- +0.156EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.065
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.63CPOE-3.92
- 37.8%Third-down rate40.7%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.99Points / drive1.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/24 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 6 | 94 | 2 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 16/26 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.17