2026 · Week 6
Final
Levi's Stadium · outdoors
Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- OutCharles OmenihuDEGroin· DNP
- OutJacory Croskey-MerrittRBGroin· DNP
- OutJavontae Jean-BaptisteLBPectoral· DNP
- OutMarcus MariotaQBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJavon KinlawDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJeremy McNicholsRBQuadricep· Full
- QuestionableJordan MageeLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableLucas PatrickGIllness· Full
- QuestionableNick CrossSIllness· Full
- QuestionablePercy ButlerSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableStefon DiggsWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTrey AmosCBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableTyler OwensSHamstring· Limited
- LimitedAustin EkelerRBChest
- LimitedFabian MoreauCBKnee
- LimitedJeremy ReavesSRib
- LimitedRachaad WhiteRBShoulder
- LimitedTerry McLaurinWRHamstring
- LimitedTreylon BurksWRShoulder
49ers
- OutDeebo Samuel Sr.WRHamstring· DNP
- OutGarret WallowLBHamstring· DNP
- OutMarques SigleSAnkle· DNP
- OutNick BosaDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableChristian KirkWRCalf· Limited
- QuestionableGracen HaltonDTQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableMike EvansWRRibs· DNP
- QuestionableMykel WilliamsDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSiran NealSNeck· Limited
- QuestionableUpton StoutCBShoulder· Limited
- DNPKaelon BlackRBNot injury related - personal matter
- LimitedRomello HeightDEHand
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.153
- 41.3%Success rate52.5%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.001
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +3.27CPOE+4.63
- 31.3%Third-down rate51.0%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
- 1.86Points / drive2.81
- 0.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–5 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 10:53 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 8:48 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| WAS | Q1 4:09 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SF | Q1 1:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–13 |
| WAS | Q1 0:37 | 6 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 3–13 |
| SF | Q2 13:02 | 7 | 66 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| WAS | Q2 9:01 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SF | Q2 6:26 | 16 | 89 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| WAS | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–20 |
| SF | Q3 12:01 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| WAS | Q3 5:56 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| SF | Q3 0:15 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–23 |
| WAS | Q4 14:05 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| SF | Q4 9:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–23 |
| WAS | Q4 7:46 | 14 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 17–23 |
| SF | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–23 |
| WAS | Q4 0:52 | 4 | 8 | End of half | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 29/40 | 300 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Antonio Williams | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/29 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Kaelon Black | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 3 | 5 | 94 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jordan Watkins | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kaelon Black | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.38