Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+12.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge map49ers
- +0.073EPA / play+0.190
- 43.5%Success rate56.9%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.142
- 4.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.44CPOE+0.77
- 33.3%Third-down rate58.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.98
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+10.26
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+12.48