2019 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

9·0

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

39

Model margin

-2.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.130
  • 44.8%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.164
  • 12.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.34CPOE-2.94
  • 45.8%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.49
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–WAS
WASQ1 15:001265Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 6:46613Punt0–0
WASQ1 3:4235Punt0–0
SFQ1 1:581233Missed field goal0–0
WASQ2 10:561151Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ2 4:02513Punt0–0
WASQ2 1:503-3Punt0–0
SFQ2 1:2369End of half0–0
SFQ3 15:00737Turnover0–0
WASQ3 12:303-4Punt0–0
SFQ3 10:05767Field goal3–0
WASQ3 5:28847Turnover3–0
SFQ3 1:201155Field goal6–0
WASQ4 9:0334Punt6–0
SFQ4 6:421056Field goal9–0
WASQ4 0:232-11End of half9–0

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo12/2115101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman20623.10
Matt Breida8354.40
Jimmy Garoppolo4205.00
Jeff Wilson5204.00
George Kittle200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne34690
Richie James11400
George Kittle35380
Levine Toilolo1120
Ross Dwelley1320
Matt Breida1110
Marquise Goodwin0100
Dante Pettis0200
Tevin Coleman22-10

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum9/127700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20814.00
Wendell Smallwood5234.60
Steven Sims100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey Quinn23300
Wendell Smallwood11180
Jeremy Sprinkle22130
Terry McLaurin12110
Steven Sims3350
Paul Richardson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -103.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.21