2019 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
SF -10
Total
39
Model margin
-2.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.130
- 44.8%Success rate38.8%
- +0.194EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.164
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.34CPOE-2.94
- 45.8%Third-down rate29.0%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.28Points / drive1.49
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 12/21 | 151 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 9/12 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Quinn | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.21