2014 · Week 12
Final
Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
SF -9
Total
44
Model margin
+4.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.029
- 41.7%Success rate42.6%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +1.13CPOE-2.41
- 31.3%Third-down rate40.5%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.39Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 11/19 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 20/29 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 9 | 12 | 137 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.62