2014 · Week 12

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

13·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -9

Total

44

Model margin

+4.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge map49ers
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.029
  • 41.7%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.167
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +1.13CPOE-2.41
  • 31.3%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.44
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SF
WASQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:31559Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 11:13519Punt0–7
SFQ1 8:21839Punt0–7
WASQ1 3:45411Punt0–7
SFQ1 1:41413Turnover0–7
WASQ2 14:5433Punt0–7
SFQ2 13:2239Punt0–7
WASQ2 11:211061Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 5:331170Field goal7–10
SFQ3 15:0033Punt7–10
WASQ3 13:47427Punt7–10
SFQ3 11:37522Turnover7–10
WASQ3 9:0134Punt7–10
SFQ3 7:25519Punt7–10
WASQ3 4:49754Field goal10–10
SFQ3 0:3139Punt10–10
WASQ4 14:18728Punt10–10
SFQ4 10:1216Turnover10–10
WASQ4 10:0338Field goal13–10
SFQ4 7:42860Touchdown13–17
WASQ4 2:593-3Punt13–17
SFQ4 1:5735Punt13–17
WASQ4 1:2933Turnover13–17
SFQ4 0:5200End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III11/1910600
Pierre Garcon0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris211256.01
Robert Griffin III4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson25390
Pierre Garcon34340
Niles Paul12110
Roy Helu2290
Andre Roberts1470
Alfred Morris1150
Logan Paulsen1110

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick20/2925611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13362.80
Carlos Hyde7162.31
Colin Kaepernick9141.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin9121371
Michael Crabtree57580
Vernon Davis35210
Brandon Lloyd0100
Steve Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.62