2023 · Week 17

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

27·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -14

Total

49

Model margin

-4.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.084
  • 51.6%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.069
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.119
  • 13.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.51CPOE+0.32
  • 48.1%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.53
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–WAS
SFQ1 15:001250Field goal3–0
WASQ1 8:0637Punt3–0
SFQ1 7:09963Touchdown10–0
WASQ1 1:31846Field goal10–3
SFQ2 12:05417Punt10–3
WASQ2 9:511079Touchdown10–10
SFQ2 4:33971Field goal13–10
WASQ2 0:191-1End of half13–10
WASQ3 15:0033Punt13–10
SFQ3 12:591368Touchdown20–10
WASQ3 5:441274Turnover20–10
SFQ4 14:5310105Touchdown27–10
WASQ4 9:2026Turnover27–10
SFQ4 8:50839Turnover on downs27–10
WASQ4 3:5633Punt27–10
SFQ4 2:163-3Punt27–10
WASQ4 1:3948Turnover on downs27–10
SFQ4 0:5400End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy22/2823020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell17804.71
Christian McCaffrey14644.60
Deebo Samuel Sr.33511.70
Brock Purdy144.00
Jordan Mason231.50
Sam Darnold2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk781141
Deebo Samuel Sr.56371
George Kittle34290
Christian McCaffrey45270
Ronnie Bell0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell17/2816912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson9444.90
Antonio Gibson4194.80
Sam Howell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin47611
Curtis Samuel34330
Brian Robinson44320
Logan Thomas34200
Antonio Gibson24170
John Bates1160
Byron Pringle0100
Jahan Dotson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

37.8%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-4.24