2023 · Week 17
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
SF -14
Total
49
Model margin
-4.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.084
- 51.6%Success rate41.9%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.069
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.119
- 13.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.51CPOE+0.32
- 48.1%Third-down rate35.6%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.69Points / drive1.53
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/28 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 17/28 | 169 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-4.24