Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.099
- 39.5%Success rate40.0%
- -0.097EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.098
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.2%
- 32.4%Third-down rate34.0%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.22Points / drive1.30
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/25 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 10/20 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 28 | 91 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19