Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.091
- 47.8%Success rate46.9%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.034
- 9.7%Explosive rate11.2%
- +6.51CPOE+2.55
- 43.5%Third-down rate45.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.25Points / drive2.32
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 20/30 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/20 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 19 | 126 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.38