2020 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

7·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBrowns
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.8%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.034
  • 9.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +6.51CPOE+2.55
  • 43.5%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.32
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001263Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 8:2732Punt0–3
CLEQ1 6:1934Punt0–3
HOUQ1 4:481467Turnover on downs0–3
CLEQ2 12:54525Punt0–3
CLEQ2 9:4710Punt0–3
CLEQ2 9:4300Punt0–3
HOUQ2 9:331024Punt0–3
CLEQ2 4:201159Turnover on downs0–3
HOUQ2 0:2534End of half0–3
HOUQ3 15:00423Punt0–3
CLEQ3 13:57516Punt0–3
HOUQ3 10:351244Missed field goal0–3
CLEQ3 3:331165Touchdown0–10
HOUQ4 13:3235Punt0–10
CLEQ4 12:29830Punt0–10
HOUQ4 7:51775Touchdown7–10
CLEQ4 4:59796End of half7–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson20/3016310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson14543.90
Deshaun Watson8364.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb35410
Brandin Cooks68390
Will Fuller58380
Pharaoh Brown22211
Darren Fells11150
Kenny Stills1160
Jordan Akins1150
Duke Johnson0100
C.J. Prosise11-20

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield12/2013200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb191266.61
Kareem Hunt191045.50
Baker Mayfield310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins34480
Jarvis Landry35290
Kareem Hunt34280
Donovan Peoples-Jones22160
Austin Hooper12110
Nick Chubb0100
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.38