2017 · Week 6

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kevin Hogan

17·33

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTexans
  • -0.146EPA / play-0.053
  • 38.4%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -5.42CPOE-2.95
  • 33.6%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.47
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00952Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:57834Punt0–3
HOUQ1 6:0031Punt0–3
CLEQ1 4:4934Field goal3–3
HOUQ1 3:15582Touchdown3–10
CLEQ1 0:41958Opp touchdown3–16
CLEQ2 11:08519Turnover3–16
HOUQ2 9:1434Punt3–16
CLEQ2 8:0136Punt3–16
HOUQ2 5:53766Touchdown3–24
CLEQ2 3:0430Punt3–24
HOUQ2 2:333-8Punt3–24
CLEQ2 1:42616Turnover3–24
HOUQ2 0:11226End of half3–24
CLEQ3 15:0033Punt3–24
HOUQ3 13:56417Punt3–24
CLEQ3 11:3833Safety3–26
HOUQ3 10:101460Touchdown3–33
CLEQ3 4:05738Punt3–33
HOUQ3 0:20421Opp touchdown10–33
HOUQ4 13:2736Punt10–33
CLEQ4 11:58521Punt10–33
HOUQ4 9:3336Punt10–33
CLEQ4 7:57721Punt10–33
HOUQ4 3:3936Punt10–33
CLEQ4 1:49524Touchdown17–33
HOUQ4 1:0312End of half17–33

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Hogan20/3714013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12584.80
Duke Johnson5408.00
Kevin Hogan5367.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kasen Williams46410
Ricardo Louis37250
Bryce Treggs13200
Isaiah Crowell22150
Rashard Higgins12130
Sammie Coates12110
Seth DeValve2391
Danny Vitale1170
David Njoku2500
Duke Johnson35-10

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson17/2922531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman12594.90
Lamar Miller15412.70
Deshaun Watson6233.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller25621
Ryan Griffin38520
Lamar Miller34400
Bruce Ellington23220
DeAndre Hopkins24191
Stephen Anderson22170
Braxton Miller22-51

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.84