Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play-0.053
- 38.4%Success rate40.4%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- -5.42CPOE-2.95
- 33.6%Third-down rate36.6%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 1.07Points / drive1.47
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hogan | 20/37 | 140 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Hogan | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasen Williams | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 17/29 | 225 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 2 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 2 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84