Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.069
- 40.7%Success rate38.1%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- -2.14CPOE-7.11
- 38.0%Third-down rate29.9%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.63Points / drive1.44
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 20/30 | 211 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 36 | 156 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 5 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 20/50 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 6 | 13 | 97 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 13 | 92 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.36
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+0.81