2014 · Week 11

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Mallett

23·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

Total

42

Model margin

+0.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.069
  • 40.7%Success rate38.1%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -2.14CPOE-7.11
  • 38.0%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.44
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CLE
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:49511Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:561287Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 7:09760Missed field goal7–0
HOUQ1 3:46943Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 0:30828Punt7–0
HOUQ2 12:5239Punt7–0
CLEQ2 11:36862Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 8:58521Punt7–7
CLEQ2 6:27851Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 3:061073Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 0:2300End of half14–7
CLEQ3 15:00510Punt14–7
HOUQ3 13:421043Missed field goal14–7
CLEQ3 9:1649Punt14–7
HOUQ3 7:56960Field goal17–7
CLEQ3 5:1654Punt17–7
HOUQ3 2:5032Punt17–7
CLEQ3 1:244-7Punt17–7
HOUQ3 0:151238Field goal20–7
CLEQ4 9:47968Turnover on downs20–7
HOUQ4 6:4939Punt20–7
CLEQ4 5:04536Turnover20–7
HOUQ4 4:01535Field goal23–7
CLEQ4 2:47944Turnover on downs23–7
HOUQ4 1:1000End of half23–7

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett20/3021121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue361564.30
Jonathan Grimes13544.20
Damaris Johnson166.00
Ryan Mallett4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins48800
Andre Johnson710680
Garrett Graham22341
Damaris Johnson58210
Keshawn Martin1160

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer20/5033011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell14614.40
Terrance West5122.40
Brian Hoyer210.50
Ben Tate2-9-4.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins613971
Taylor Gabriel513920
Jim Dray22460
Miles Austin38310
Isaiah Crowell24300
Travis Benjamin13230
Gary Barnidge15110
Ben Tate0100
Ray Agnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.36
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+0.81