Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.167
- 44.1%Success rate38.0%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.147
- +0.002EPA / rush-0.204
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.05CPOE-4.69
- 39.0%Third-down rate30.1%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.17
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 12/22 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 20/39 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hairston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08