2022 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

27·14

Texans

Houston

QB Kyle Allen

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTexans
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.167
  • 44.1%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.147
  • +0.002EPA / rush-0.204
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.05CPOE-4.69
  • 39.0%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.17
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 14:5437Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:04418Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:38217Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 11:53833Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 8:02973Turnover0–3
HOUQ1 3:231273Turnover on downs0–3
CLEQ2 13:0220Safety0–5
HOUQ2 11:5335Punt0–5
CLEQ2 9:35745Punt0–5
HOUQ2 5:2038Opp touchdown7–5
HOUQ2 3:41422Punt7–5
CLEQ2 1:22413Punt7–5
HOUQ2 0:3237Punt7–5
CLEQ2 0:11217End of half7–5
CLEQ3 15:00841Punt7–5
HOUQ3 10:3821Opp touchdown14–5
HOUQ3 10:10829Field goal14–8
CLEQ3 5:08528Punt14–8
HOUQ3 1:3131Punt14–8
CLEQ3 0:341152Field goal17–8
HOUQ4 9:3610Opp touchdown24–8
HOUQ4 9:30511Punt24–8
CLEQ4 7:4639Punt24–8
CLEQ4 5:2943Field goal27–8
HOUQ4 4:03775Touchdown27–14
CLEQ4 1:5700End of half27–14

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson12/2213101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb17804.70
Kareem Hunt9566.20
Deshaun Watson7213.00
Harrison Bryant188.00
Anthony Schwartz166.00
Jerome Ford331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones33440
Amari Cooper49400
Kareem Hunt23180
Anthony Schwartz11120
Pharaoh Brown11110
Harrison Bryant1160
Nick Chubb0100
Demetric Felton0100
David Bell0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen20/3920112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce18734.10
Dare Ogunbowale284.00
Kyle Allen210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore33460
Brevin Jordan45460
Nico Collins310351
Dameon Pierce33220
Jordan Akins36210
Phillip Dorsett23180
Dare Ogunbowale23130
Teagan Quitoriano0300
Troy Hairston0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.08