2021 · Week 2

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Tyrod Taylor

21·31

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -13.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.134EPA / play+0.014
  • 37.6%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.213EPA / rush+0.015
  • 6.1%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -1.54CPOE-2.26
  • 38.7%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.81
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CLE
CLEQ1 15:005-2Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:58435Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:56884Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 5:18647Turnover7–7
HOUQ1 2:13629Punt7–7
CLEQ2 13:54835Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 9:44647Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 7:061075Touchdown14–14
HOUQ2 1:14620Punt14–14
HOUQ3 15:0034Punt14–14
CLEQ3 13:421072Touchdown14–21
HOUQ3 7:5030Turnover14–21
CLEQ3 6:1736Field goal14–24
HOUQ3 4:401763Touchdown21–24
CLEQ4 11:32982Touchdown21–31
HOUQ4 5:5230Punt21–31
CLEQ4 5:1938Punt21–31
HOUQ4 3:33955Missed field goal21–31
CLEQ4 1:5900End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor10/1112510
Davis Mills8/1810211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14412.90
David Johnson6254.20
Tyrod Taylor11515.01
Phillip Lindsay520.40
Davis Mills2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks914781
Andre Roberts12350
Nico Collins11320
David Johnson22220
Phillip Lindsay11221
Jordan Akins12170
Chris Conley12130
Danny Amendola1190
Pharaoh Brown0100
Mark Ingram12-10

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/2121311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb11958.61
Kareem Hunt13513.90
Baker Mayfield8101.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demetric Felton22511
Harrison Bryant44490
Austin Hooper55400
Rashard Higgins22270
David Njoku23180
Donovan Peoples-Jones11140
Jarvis Landry1190
Nick Chubb1130
Kareem Hunt1120
Anthony Schwartz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.56