Closing spread
CLE -13.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play+0.014
- 37.6%Success rate43.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.213EPA / rush+0.015
- 6.1%Explosive rate11.2%
- -1.54CPOE-2.26
- 38.7%Third-down rate39.1%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.50Points / drive1.81
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 10/11 | 125 | 1 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 8/18 | 102 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 14 | 78 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/21 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 95 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56