Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play-0.023
- 39.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -5.66CPOE-1.53
- 32.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.56Points / drive1.91
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 34/46 | 307 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 7 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| David Bell | 8 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/21 | 274 | 3 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 1 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 6 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.97