2023 · WC

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

14·45

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTexans
  • -0.127EPA / play-0.023
  • 39.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -5.66CPOE-1.53
  • 32.3%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.91
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–HOU
CLEQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:25626Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:0035Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:23643Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 5:29675Touchdown7–3
HOUQ1 2:09475Touchdown7–10
CLEQ1 0:11675Touchdown14–10
HOUQ2 12:18176Touchdown14–17
CLEQ2 12:003-12Punt14–17
HOUQ2 10:173-3Punt14–17
CLEQ2 8:42520Punt14–17
HOUQ2 5:44969Touchdown14–24
CLEQ2 1:11310End of half14–24
HOUQ3 15:00517Punt14–24
CLEQ3 11:27958Opp touchdown14–31
CLEQ3 6:0548Opp touchdown14–38
CLEQ3 4:061025Turnover on downs14–38
HOUQ3 1:27650Touchdown14–45
CLEQ4 13:27721Turnover on downs14–45
HOUQ4 9:2237Punt14–45
CLEQ4 6:571133Turnover on downs14–45
HOUQ4 1:5300End of half14–45

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco34/4630712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt8263.31
Jerome Ford9171.90
Joe Flacco3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku711930
Harrison Bryant46650
Amari Cooper45590
David Bell88540
Jerome Ford44150
Elijah Moore22120
Kareem Hunt5691
Marquise Goodwin0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud16/2127430
Davis Mills1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary13665.11
John Metchie III199.00
Nico Collins144.00
C.J. Stroud111.00
Dameon Pierce300.00
Davis Mills3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins67961
Brevin Jordan11761
John Metchie III33440
Dalton Schultz12371
Xavier Hutchinson22120
Robert Woods12110
Devin Singletary3340
Noah Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.97