2018 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

13·29

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTexans
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.032
  • 42.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.95CPOE+4.58
  • 35.9%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001263Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 8:1235Punt0–3
HOUQ1 6:161082Touchdown0–10
CLEQ1 0:38524Punt0–10
HOUQ2 13:18840Punt0–10
CLEQ2 9:02512Opp touchdown0–17
HOUQ2 7:2600Opp touchdown0–17
CLEQ2 7:2600Turnover0–17
CLEQ2 7:2130Turnover0–17
HOUQ2 6:37627Field goal0–20
CLEQ2 3:19433Turnover0–20
CLEQ2 1:5210Turnover0–20
HOUQ2 1:44448Field goal0–20
HOUQ2 0:5652Field goal0–23
HOUQ2 0:0500Field goal0–23
CLEQ2 0:0100End of half0–23
CLEQ3 15:00985Touchdown7–23
HOUQ3 9:39930Field goal7–26
CLEQ3 5:26479Turnover7–26
HOUQ3 3:351040Punt7–26
CLEQ4 12:16658Turnover on downs7–26
HOUQ4 9:45744Field goal7–29
CLEQ4 5:46975Touchdown13–29
HOUQ4 2:5849Punt13–29
CLEQ4 1:45557Turnover on downs13–29
HOUQ4 0:0800End of half13–29

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield29/4339713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb9313.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry691030
Antonio Callaway36840
Rashard Higgins44621
Nick Chubb33410
Dontrell Hilliard44400
Breshad Perriman22260
Seth DeValve12190
Duke Johnson23120
David Njoku3680
Damion Ratley1120

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/3122410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller191035.40
Alfred Blue13544.20
Deshaun Watson7304.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins712910
Demaryius Thomas35320
DeAndre Carter66320
Jordan Akins11130
Lamar Miller11120
Ryan Griffin11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.28