Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.032
- 42.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.95CPOE+4.58
- 35.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 29/43 | 397 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 3 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 4 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/31 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.28