Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
40
Model margin
-3.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play-0.023
- 39.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -5.66CPOE-1.53
- 32.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.56Points / drive1.91
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/42 | 368 | 3 | 2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 15 | 25 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Pierre Strong | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 11 | 15 | 265 | 2 |
| David Njoku | 6 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 15/32 | 149 | 2 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 11/17 | 62 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 8 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.06