2023 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

36·22

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

40

Model margin

-3.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTexans
  • -0.127EPA / play-0.023
  • 39.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -5.66CPOE-1.53
  • 32.3%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.91
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU
2011 · W9CLE @ HOU12–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–HOU
CLEQ1 15:00459Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 13:18615Punt7–0
CLEQ1 9:47612Punt7–0
HOUQ1 6:37411Punt7–0
CLEQ1 4:36425Punt7–0
HOUQ1 1:42628Punt7–0
CLEQ2 13:36390Touchdown14–6
HOUQ2 12:0400Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 11:5146Punt14–7
HOUQ2 10:238-7Punt14–7
CLEQ2 7:07650Touchdown22–7
HOUQ2 4:1633Punt22–7
CLEQ2 1:5822Turnover22–7
HOUQ2 1:30625Turnover22–7
CLEQ2 0:23423Turnover22–7
HOUQ3 15:00421Punt22–7
CLEQ3 12:141989Touchdown28–7
HOUQ3 2:3532Turnover28–7
CLEQ3 1:371150Touchdown36–7
HOUQ4 12:3148Turnover on downs36–7
CLEQ4 10:5761Turnover on downs36–7
HOUQ4 8:061061Touchdown36–15
CLEQ4 6:0800Touchdown36–15
HOUQ4 6:07953Touchdown36–22
CLEQ4 4:12912Turnover on downs36–22
HOUQ4 2:061130Turnover on downs36–22
CLEQ4 0:2400End of half36–22

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco27/4236832
Dorian Thompson-Robinson1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford15251.71
Pierre Strong5224.40
Kareem Hunt7111.61
Joe Flacco210.50
Dorian Thompson-Robinson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper11152652
David Njoku69441
Elijah Moore24190
Jordan Akins22180
Cedric Tillman22130
Harrison Bryant1160
David Bell1260
Kareem Hunt2450
Marquise Goodwin0100
Pierre Strong0100
Jerome Ford12-20

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills15/3214920
Case Keenum11/176202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary9444.90
Davis Mills294.50
Robert Woods177.00
Dare Ogunbowale166.00
Dameon Pierce362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz811610
Noah Brown37380
Brevin Jordan23270
Devin Singletary33190
Nico Collins46181
Xavier Hutchinson12180
Robert Woods26140
Dameon Pierce12100
Dare Ogunbowale0300
John Metchie III0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.9%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.06