Closing spread
SD -5
Total
51
Model margin
+0.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:56 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:51 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:34 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:33 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:16 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 14:56 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 12:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 10:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 8:30 | 7 | 38 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 5:24 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:56 | 6 | 79 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:27 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 3–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q3 11:26 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–21 |
| KC | Q3 9:06 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 6:45 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| KC | Q3 3:41 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 1:39 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–21 |
| KC | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| LAC | Q4 12:00 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| KC | Q4 9:10 | 12 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 13–28 |
| LAC | Q4 4:23 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 13–28 |
| KC | Q4 3:49 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| LAC | Q4 2:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–28 |
| KC | Q4 0:22 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 20–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 31/43 | 347 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+0.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.