Closing spread
OAK -2
Total
46
Model margin
-0.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:31 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q1 6:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:48 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:35 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| LV | Q2 10:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–6 |
| TEN | Q2 8:36 | 2 | 34 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| LV | Q2 7:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–12 |
| TEN | Q2 6:46 | 3 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 24–12 |
| TEN | Q2 5:47 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 24–15 |
| LV | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 24–22 |
| LV | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–22 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 49 | Turnover | 24–22 |
| LV | Q3 5:29 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 27–22 |
| TEN | Q3 1:29 | 16 | 79 | Field goal | 27–25 |
| LV | Q4 7:48 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 34–25 |
| TEN | Q4 4:37 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 34–25 |
| LV | Q4 3:34 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 34–25 |
| TEN | Q4 3:07 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 34–25 |
| LV | Q4 2:14 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 34–25 |
| TEN | Q4 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 26/40 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.