2005 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

0·36

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.3%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.026
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 43.1%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.047

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00652Field goal0–3
WASQ1 11:2935Punt0–3
NYGQ1 10:191474Turnover0–3
WASQ1 4:1440Punt0–3
NYGQ1 2:26511Field goal0–6
WASQ1 0:173-4Punt0–6
NYGQ2 14:20462Touchdown0–13
WASQ2 12:31614Punt0–13
NYGQ2 9:27525Missed field goal0–13
WASQ2 7:4031Punt0–13
NYGQ2 6:4637Punt0–13
WASQ2 5:3834Turnover0–13
NYGQ2 5:06612Field goal0–16
WASQ2 2:14314Turnover0–16
NYGQ2 1:45418Field goal0–19
WASQ2 0:0200End of half0–19
WASQ3 15:0000Touchdown0–19
NYGQ3 14:53433Touchdown0–26
WASQ3 13:1733Punt0–26
NYGQ3 12:093-7Punt0–26
WASQ3 10:4530Punt0–26
NYGQ3 9:0639Punt0–26
WASQ3 7:25612Punt0–26
NYGQ3 5:45429Field goal0–29
WASQ3 4:0415Turnover0–29
NYGQ3 3:52623Touchdown0–36
WASQ3 1:071056Turnover on downs0–36
NYGQ4 11:311033Punt0–36
WASQ4 4:16616Turnover on downs0–36
NYGQ4 2:1745Turnover on downs0–36
WASQ4 0:2200End of half0–36

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell11/286501
Patrick Ramsey3/66200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rock Cartwright22110.50
Clinton Portis492.30
Patrick Ramsey351.70
Ladell Betts320.70
Mark Brunell111.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning12/3114611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber242068.61
Derrick Ward13423.20
Brandon Jacobs8141.81

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.92