2005 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.041
- 41.3%Success rate42.4%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.026
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 43.1%Third-down rate39.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.80Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 11/28 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3/6 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/31 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 206 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92