Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.109
- 48.2%Success rate38.7%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.179
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- 43.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 2.30Points / drive1.20
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–26 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:50 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 9:22 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 3:33 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 0:30 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q2 12:12 | 15 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 5:56 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 4:38 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| BAL | Q2 1:50 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| CIN | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–6 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| BAL | Q3 11:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–6 |
| CIN | Q3 10:18 | 11 | 56 | Missed field goal | 14–6 |
| BAL | Q3 4:29 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 14–9 |
| CIN | Q4 12:46 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 21–9 |
| BAL | Q4 6:05 | 12 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 21–9 |
| CIN | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 21–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/26 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 29 | 97 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 19/30 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy Hymes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.25
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.65