Closing spread
DET -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.074
- 38.8%Success rate40.6%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.185
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.1%
- 38.8%Third-down rate33.7%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.20Points / drive1.46
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 28/48 | 263 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/22 | 136 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01