Closing spread
JAX -11
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.026
- 40.0%Success rate42.5%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- 34.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.30Points / drive1.68
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed-0.066
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:36 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:26 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 6:24 | 9 | 58 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 0:37 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 10:18 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 8:03 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 5:50 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 2:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 1:10 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q3 12:44 | 5 | 4 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q3 10:13 | 4 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q3 8:46 | 13 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| JAX | Q3 1:19 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q4 10:48 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–14 |
| JAX | Q4 7:43 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q4 2:53 | 9 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/30 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 19/25 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.74