2025 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

29·36

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.008
  • 44.5%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.56CPOE-1.68
  • 40.9%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.05
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00312Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 14:02611Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 11:0400Touchdown3–0
JAXQ1 10:57524Touchdown10–0
HOUQ1 8:171029Punt10–0
JAXQ1 2:05510Punt10–0
HOUQ2 13:313-7Opp touchdown17–0
HOUQ2 11:40761Field goal17–3
JAXQ2 8:05731Field goal20–3
HOUQ2 4:02650Touchdown20–10
JAXQ2 1:19611Turnover20–10
HOUQ2 0:11253End of half20–10
JAXQ3 15:00954Field goal23–10
HOUQ3 10:17718Turnover on downs23–10
JAXQ3 7:251361Touchdown29–10
HOUQ3 1:331365Touchdown29–18
JAXQ4 12:163-4Punt29–18
HOUQ4 10:04651Touchdown29–24
JAXQ4 7:2936Punt29–24
HOUQ4 6:101580Touchdown29–30
JAXQ4 0:3149Opp touchdown29–36

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence13/2315811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne16583.61
Trevor Lawrence5357.00
Bhayshul Tuten451.30
Parker Washington2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers33410
Austin Trammell23330
Parker Washington37331
Johnny Mundt12210
Travis Etienne24190
LeQuint Allen Jr.1160
Bhayshul Tuten1250
Dyami Brown0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills27/4529221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks14634.51
Nick Chubb5479.40
Davis Mills3206.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins7151360
Dalton Schultz711531
Jayden Higgins57421
Jaylin Noel44350
Woody Marks23180
Nick Chubb1150
Christian Kirk1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.08