Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.008
- 44.5%Success rate41.7%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.56CPOE-1.68
- 40.9%Third-down rate37.4%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 2.30Points / drive2.05
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 13/23 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 27/45 | 292 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 15 | 136 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Jayden Higgins | 5 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Jaylin Noel | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.08