Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.032
- 41.4%Success rate43.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.53CPOE+1.62
- 37.7%Third-down rate38.5%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.91Points / drive1.84
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/30 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Dell | 5 | 7 | 145 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 27/40 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48