2023 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

37·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -7.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.032
  • 41.4%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.53CPOE+1.62
  • 37.7%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.84
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:25518Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 11:32762Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 7:35526Punt7–0
HOUQ1 4:25635Punt7–0
JAXQ1 1:431050Missed field goal7–0
HOUQ2 11:51746Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 7:27627Punt14–0
HOUQ2 4:5535Punt14–0
JAXQ2 3:54737Turnover14–0
HOUQ2 1:04856Field goal17–0
JAXQ3 15:00952Touchdown17–7
HOUQ3 11:17412Punt17–7
JAXQ3 9:19753Field goal23–10
HOUQ3 4:3500Touchdown24–10
JAXQ3 4:19513Turnover24–10
HOUQ3 2:20941Field goal27–10
JAXQ4 12:36675Touchdown27–17
HOUQ4 10:40375Touchdown34–17
JAXQ4 8:59838Turnover on downs34–17
HOUQ4 6:45629Field goal37–17
JAXQ4 2:10515End of half37–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/3028020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary9414.60
Dameon Pierce14312.21
C.J. Stroud3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tank Dell571451
Robert Woods36340
Nico Collins23340
Dameon Pierce33280
Brevin Jordan22131
John Metchie III22130
Dalton Schultz1390
Devin Singletary2240
Teagan Quitoriano0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence27/4027911
C.J. Beathard2/2900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne19884.60
Trevor Lawrence3124.00
Tank Bigsby2105.01
D'Ernest Johnson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram78670
Christian Kirk46541
Travis Etienne45500
Jamal Agnew45490
Calvin Ridley37400
Tim Jones23110
Brenton Strange2270
D'Ernest Johnson2260
Luke Farrell1140
Tank Bigsby0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.48