Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.038
- 41.5%Success rate39.1%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.88CPOE-2.77
- 36.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.84
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/33 | 169 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 90 | 12.9 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 12 | 61 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 27/40 | 345 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 12 | 15 | 151 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.60