2024 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

20·24

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.038
  • 41.5%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.120
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.88CPOE-2.77
  • 36.6%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.84
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:00515Punt6–0
JAXQ1 12:4812Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 12:44970Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 7:23859Field goal10–7
HOUQ1 2:41428Punt10–7
JAXQ1 0:1836Punt10–7
HOUQ2 14:461479Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 7:19639Field goal13–14
HOUQ2 3:491184Field goal13–17
JAXQ2 0:0300End of half13–17
HOUQ3 15:0034Punt13–17
JAXQ3 14:01726Punt13–17
HOUQ3 11:0833Punt13–17
JAXQ3 10:16774Touchdown20–17
HOUQ3 6:16417Punt20–17
JAXQ3 4:32987Turnover on downs20–17
HOUQ4 14:571268Punt20–17
JAXQ4 8:31614Punt20–17
HOUQ4 5:34618Punt20–17
JAXQ4 3:5131Punt20–17
HOUQ4 2:54964Touchdown20–24
JAXQ4 0:182-9End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/3316920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby79012.90
Travis Etienne11504.50
Brian Thomas Jr.11313.00
Trevor Lawrence351.70
D'Ernest Johnson200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.69861
Christian Kirk712611
Brenton Strange33190
Travis Etienne12100
Luke Farrell0100
Gabe Davis15-20

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud27/4034520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers13534.10
J.J. Taylor6183.00
C.J. Stroud3175.70
Dare Ogunbowale273.50
Stefon Diggs166.01
Steven Sims100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins12151511
Stefon Diggs59690
Dare Ogunbowale44471
Dalton Schultz35340
Cade Stover11270
Robert Woods13100
John Metchie III1170
J.J. Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.60