2024 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

23·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.023
  • 39.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.067
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.77CPOE-0.88
  • 38.2%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.74
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:171133Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:29631Punt0–0
HOUQ1 4:41417Punt0–0
JAXQ1 2:5436Punt0–0
HOUQ1 1:57440Field goal3–0
JAXQ2 14:513-1Turnover3–0
HOUQ2 13:171128Field goal6–0
JAXQ2 6:261457Field goal6–3
HOUQ2 0:0800End of half6–3
HOUQ3 15:0037Punt6–3
JAXQ3 13:30873Field goal6–6
HOUQ3 10:06570Touchdown13–6
JAXQ3 8:04311Punt13–6
HOUQ3 6:12941Field goal16–6
JAXQ3 1:16633Missed field goal16–6
HOUQ4 13:57555Touchdown23–6
JAXQ4 12:111272Touchdown23–12
HOUQ4 7:4939Punt23–12
JAXQ4 5:571084Touchdown23–20
HOUQ4 3:31528End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud22/3424210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon201015.01
C.J. Stroud571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins8111190
Dalton Schultz57611
Tank Dell14230
Joe Mixon46180
John Metchie III22160
Cade Stover1140
Dameon Pierce1110
Robert Woods0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones20/3223520
Trevor Lawrence4/104101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne13463.50
Tank Bigsby7284.00
Brian Thomas Jr.11111.00
Trevor Lawrence166.00
Mac Jones362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington6121031
Brian Thomas Jr.410761
Evan Engram79410
Devin Duvernay24230
Brenton Strange12140
Travis Etienne33120
Tank Bigsby1170
Luke Farrell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.45