Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.023
- 39.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.77CPOE-0.88
- 38.2%Third-down rate36.6%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.84Points / drive1.74
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/34 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 20 | 101 | 5.0 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 8 | 11 | 119 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 20/32 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4/10 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 6 | 12 | 103 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.45