Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.039
- 41.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.68CPOE-1.56
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.05Points / drive2.30
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 25/38 | 204 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 8 | 11 | 104 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/40 | 222 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 4 | 11 | 34 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.66