2025 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

10·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.039
  • 41.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.68CPOE-1.56
  • 37.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.30
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:2337Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:10724Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 6:401047Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 2:063-4Punt0–7
JAXQ1 0:29615Punt0–7
HOUQ2 13:511561Field goal3–7
JAXQ2 6:5435Punt3–7
HOUQ2 5:4539Punt3–7
JAXQ2 4:174-11Punt3–7
HOUQ2 1:53311Punt3–7
JAXQ2 0:53525Punt3–7
HOUQ2 0:0400End of half3–7
JAXQ3 15:001464Field goal3–10
HOUQ3 6:2344Punt3–10
JAXQ3 3:45425Missed field goal3–10
HOUQ3 1:11531Turnover3–10
JAXQ4 13:4837Punt3–10
HOUQ4 12:0836Punt3–10
JAXQ4 9:4330Turnover9–10
HOUQ4 9:25150Touchdown10–10
JAXQ4 9:17725Turnover on downs10–10
HOUQ4 6:14532Turnover10–10
JAXQ4 3:47783Touchdown10–17
HOUQ4 1:48941Turnover10–17
JAXQ4 0:2000End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud25/3820412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb9384.20
Woody Marks6274.50
C.J. Stroud4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins8111041
Dalton Schultz56390
Christian Kirk38250
Xavier Hutchinson33160
Woody Marks1290
Jayden Higgins1150
Jaylin Noel1140
Nick Chubb3420

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/4022201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne16563.51
Bhayshul Tuten6213.51
Trevor Lawrence294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brenton Strange67610
Brian Thomas Jr.26550
Parker Washington411340
Tim Patrick11160
Hunter Long23120
LeQuint Allen Jr.1190
Johnny Mundt1170
Dyami Brown2370
Travis Etienne0200
Bhayshul Tuten0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.66