Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
-2.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.167
- 46.6%Success rate38.0%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.204
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.07CPOE-4.69
- 42.0%Third-down rate30.1%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.07Points / drive1.17
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/21 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Beathard | 5/8 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 9 | 108 | 12.0 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Snoop Conner | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 6 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 22/40 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3/4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Troy Hairston | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-2.08