2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

31·3

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

-2.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.167
  • 46.6%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.204
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.07CPOE-4.69
  • 42.0%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.17
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00719Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ1 11:30845Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 8:2437Punt7–0
JAXQ1 6:50637Punt7–0
HOUQ1 3:4158Punt7–0
JAXQ1 1:14512Punt7–0
HOUQ2 14:1336Punt13–0
JAXQ2 12:30162Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 12:212-7Opp touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 11:35314Punt21–0
JAXQ2 9:0725Turnover21–0
HOUQ2 8:21531Turnover on downs21–0
JAXQ2 6:4937Punt21–0
HOUQ2 4:45616Punt21–0
JAXQ2 1:53639End of half21–0
JAXQ3 15:001365Touchdown28–0
HOUQ3 9:28747Field goal28–3
JAXQ3 5:491058Turnover28–3
HOUQ3 0:451139Turnover on downs28–3
JAXQ4 11:383-4Punt28–3
HOUQ4 10:003-5Punt28–3
JAXQ4 8:1535Field goal31–3
HOUQ4 6:06838Turnover on downs31–3
JAXQ4 3:5336Punt31–3
HOUQ4 1:54764End of half31–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/2115201
C.J. Beathard5/82901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne910812.01
JaMycal Hasty10333.31
Snoop Conner5173.41
Evan Engram11313.00
Trevor Lawrence242.00
Jamal Agnew2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones67610
Travis Etienne33320
Zay Jones35240
JaMycal Hasty66230
Christian Kirk23210
Evan Engram12160
Jamal Agnew1140
Dan Arnold0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills22/4020200
Jeff Driskel3/4900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Davis Mills4338.30
Dare Ogunbowale7213.00
Royce Freeman7192.70
Jeff Driskel273.50
Amari Rodgers144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks47390
Jordan Akins23380
O.J. Howard12260
Chris Moore35210
Royce Freeman35200
Brevin Jordan13200
Phillip Dorsett36140
Amari Rodgers22120
Rex Burkhead35100
Troy Hairston1170
Dare Ogunbowale2340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-2.08