Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.023
- 43.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.164
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.62CPOE-1.53
- 38.5%Third-down rate37.7%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.84Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/38 | 364 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Luke Farrell | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 26/36 | 304 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 9 | 104 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.93