2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

24·21

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.023
  • 43.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.164
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.62CPOE-1.53
  • 38.5%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.91
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:481165Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 5:5449Punt3–0
JAXQ1 4:2434Punt3–0
HOUQ1 3:34719Punt3–0
JAXQ2 14:22964Touchdown10–0
HOUQ2 9:43575Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 6:37750Field goal13–7
HOUQ2 2:24944Missed field goal13–7
JAXQ2 0:20464End of half13–7
JAXQ3 15:00841Turnover13–7
HOUQ3 11:49746Touchdown13–14
JAXQ3 8:101056Touchdown21–14
HOUQ3 4:29416Punt21–14
JAXQ3 2:331264Field goal24–14
HOUQ4 11:20521Turnover on downs24–14
JAXQ4 9:1559Missed field goal24–14
HOUQ4 7:05555Touchdown24–21
JAXQ4 5:15529Punt24–21
HOUQ4 3:011045Missed field goal24–21
JAXQ4 0:2900End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3836411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne20562.80
D'Ernest Johnson7192.70
Tank Bigsby166.00
Trevor Lawrence200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk47890
Calvin Ridley56891
Luke Farrell35550
Evan Engram58490
D'Ernest Johnson12420
Travis Etienne46300
Zay Jones13100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud26/3630420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Stroud6477.81
Devin Singletary6183.00
Dameon Pierce5142.80
Tank Dell11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins791041
Devin Singletary67540
Tank Dell58501
Robert Woods23400
Xavier Hutchinson11340
Brevin Jordan1290
John Metchie III1260
Dameon Pierce1140
Dalton Schultz1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.93