Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+21.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapJaguars
- +0.071EPA / play+0.310
- 48.1%Success rate59.3%
- +0.098EPA / dropback+0.731
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.053
- 8.9%Explosive rate16.7%
- +3.16CPOE+22.32
- 43.8%Third-down rate55.6%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.80Points / drive3.76
- 2.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+18.80
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+21.02