2026 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

34·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

Wembley Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.117
  • 43.4%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.138EPA / dropback+0.227
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.030
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +2.27CPOE+3.79
  • 37.8%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 60.4%Red-zone TD rate71.6%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.62
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX
2022 · W5HOU @ JAX13–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00428Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:4733Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:08718Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 8:14562Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 5:131569Turnover7–0
HOUQ2 13:1839Punt7–0
JAXQ2 11:13884Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 6:47757Field goal10–7
JAXQ2 4:161043Touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 0:55451Touchdown17–14
JAXQ2 0:0810End of half17–14
HOUQ3 15:001165Touchdown24–14
JAXQ3 9:2133Punt24–14
HOUQ3 8:14519Punt24–14
JAXQ3 5:31669Touchdown24–21
HOUQ3 2:34646Touchdown31–21
JAXQ3 0:50961Touchdown31–28
HOUQ4 11:261378Turnover31–28
JAXQ4 3:53638Field goal31–31
HOUQ4 1:55636Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud24/3431231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks15563.70
Jawhar Jordan6437.21
Nico Collins155.00
C.J. Stroud155.00
Cade Stover252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylin Noel441071
Nico Collins35740
Marvin Harrison Jr.34340
Dalton Schultz46330
Woody Marks23250
Kayshon Boutte23160
Xavier Hutchinson23100
Foster Moreau2272
Jawhar Jordan1170
Brevin Jordan11-10

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/4130641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11555.00
Bhayshul Tuten12393.30
Trevor Lawrence3113.70
LeQuint Allen Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers510830
Parker Washington411640
Bhayshul Tuten44482
Brenton Strange57440
Nate Boerkircher2281
Chris Rodriguez Jr.0100
Brian Thomas Jr.0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.10