Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.203
- 42.4%Success rate34.0%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.129
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 39.9%Third-down rate25.0%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.87Points / drive0.94
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/33 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Pickett | 12/21 | 102 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
0.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19