2017 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

21·31

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.041
  • 41.1%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.110
  • 6.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -3.91CPOE-3.27
  • 32.5%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
SFQ1 15:00425Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 12:40946Field goal3–3
SFQ1 7:23839Turnover on downs3–3
NYGQ1 3:34545Field goal6–3
SFQ1 1:071042Turnover6–3
NYGQ2 11:37332Turnover6–3
SFQ2 10:00494Touchdown6–10
NYGQ2 7:591075Touchdown13–10
SFQ2 2:08681Touchdown13–17
NYGQ2 0:2815End of half13–17
NYGQ3 15:001154Missed field goal13–17
SFQ3 9:47664Turnover13–17
NYGQ3 7:44417Punt13–17
SFQ3 5:391161Touchdown13–24
NYGQ4 14:5347Punt13–24
SFQ4 12:51662Touchdown13–31
NYGQ4 9:1933Punt13–31
SFQ4 7:5339Punt13–31
NYGQ4 5:361590Touchdown21–31
SFQ4 1:0200End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning28/3727320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa14705.00
Wayne Gallman3227.30
Shane Vereen5112.20
Tavarres King11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard11131420
Roger Lewis34331
Evan Engram69311
Shane Vereen44270
Tavarres King24220
Orleans Darkwa22180
Wayne Gallman0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard19/2528821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde17985.80
Matt Breida9556.11
Marquise Goodwin11818.00
C.J. Beathard5153.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin12831
Garrett Celek46671
Louis Murphy22480
Kendrick Bourne33420
Aldrick Robinson11120
Carlos Hyde2360
Matt Breida1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

6.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10