Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.041
- 41.1%Success rate41.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -3.91CPOE-3.27
- 32.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.19Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/37 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 11 | 13 | 142 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 9 | 31 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 19/25 | 288 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 83 | 1 |
| Garrett Celek | 4 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10