2020 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

36·9

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 75°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

44

Model margin

+0.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Giants wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapGiants
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.057
  • 45.8%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.74CPOE-2.04
  • 39.6%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.57
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NYG
SFQ1 15:00941Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 9:43633Turnover3–0
SFQ1 6:271238Field goal6–0
NYGQ1 1:02641Field goal6–3
SFQ2 13:32933Missed field goal6–3
NYGQ2 9:02626Field goal6–6
SFQ2 7:251375Touchdown13–6
NYGQ2 1:0720Turnover13–6
SFQ2 0:59434Field goal16–6
NYGQ2 0:0300End of half16–6
NYGQ3 15:001353Field goal16–9
SFQ3 8:06970Touchdown23–9
NYGQ3 3:1464Turnover on downs23–9
SFQ3 0:44430Touchdown29–9
NYGQ4 13:28618Punt29–9
SFQ4 11:5615102Touchdown36–9
NYGQ4 3:35756Turnover36–9
SFQ4 1:4900End of half36–9

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens25/3634310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon14382.71
Brandon Aiyuk33110.31
Jeff Wilson12151.31
JaMycal Hasty294.50
Nick Mullens400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk58700
Kendrick Bourne46630
Jeff Wilson33541
Ross Dwelley44490
Jerick McKinnon34390
Jordan Reed26230
Trent Taylor11200
Mohamed Sanu1190
JaMycal Hasty1190

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones17/3217901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones5499.80
Devonta Freeman5102.00
Wayne Gallman471.80
Dion Lewis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton37530
Golden Tate57360
Damion Ratley12290
Evan Engram35220
Kaden Smith12130
Dion Lewis13100
C.J. Board1290
Wayne Gallman2370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

40.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92