Closing spread
SF -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.057
- 45.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.74CPOE-2.04
- 39.6%Third-down rate35.1%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.03Points / drive1.57
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 25/36 | 343 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 12 | 15 | 1.3 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Ross Dwelley | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 17/32 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92