2012 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

26·3

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • +0.086EPA / play+0.105
  • 46.8%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.000EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.8%Explosive rate12.9%
  • +0.81CPOE+5.02
  • 41.8%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.92
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
SFQ1 15:001159Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 9:0338Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:271161Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 2:00616Punt0–3
SFQ2 14:0210Turnover0–3
NYGQ2 13:54767Touchdown7–3
SFQ2 10:0432Punt7–3
NYGQ2 7:30751Field goal10–3
SFQ2 2:56415Punt10–3
NYGQ2 1:34657Missed field goal10–3
SFQ2 0:11136Missed field goal10–3
NYGQ3 15:00732Touchdown17–3
SFQ3 11:4839Turnover17–3
NYGQ3 10:0730Field goal20–3
SFQ3 9:513-1Turnover20–3
NYGQ3 7:4331Field goal23–3
SFQ3 6:10658Turnover on downs23–3
NYGQ3 2:54414Punt23–3
SFQ3 1:15624Punt23–3
NYGQ4 14:23532Punt23–3
SFQ4 11:1659Punt23–3
NYGQ4 9:061267Field goal26–3
SFQ4 1:56742Turnover on downs26–3
NYGQ4 0:5700End of half26–3

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning15/2819310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw271164.31
David Wilson7355.00
Eli Manning3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Domenik Hixon46780
Victor Cruz613581
Hakeem Nicks35440
Martellus Bennett1290
Ahmad Bradshaw1140

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3020003
Colin Kaepernick4/78200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore8364.50
Kendall Hunter4266.50
Mario Manningham177.00
Colin Kaepernick263.00
Alex Smith252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss23750
Mario Manningham510720
Kyle Williams44400
Vernon Davis35370
Michael Crabtree36260
Frank Gore44200
Kendall Hunter1160
Garrett Celek1260
Delanie Walker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.59