Closing spread
SF -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.105
- 46.8%Success rate47.9%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.000EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.8%Explosive rate12.9%
- +0.81CPOE+5.02
- 41.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.27Points / drive1.92
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/28 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 27 | 116 | 4.3 | 1 |
| David Wilson | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenik Hixon | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 13 | 58 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/30 | 200 | 0 | 3 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4/7 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 2 | 3 | 75 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59