Closing spread
SF -4
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.014
- 42.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.41CPOE+0.79
- 40.5%Third-down rate43.5%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.44Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/29 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/45 | 280 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 7 | 15 | 112 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 13 | 93 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06