2014 · Week 11

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

16·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -4

Total

45

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Giants wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapGiants
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.014
  • 42.6%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.147
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.41CPOE+0.79
  • 40.5%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NYG
SFQ1 15:001163Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 9:04563Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 6:541132Field goal3–7
NYGQ1 0:5932Punt3–7
SFQ2 15:00952Field goal6–7
NYGQ2 10:15413Turnover6–7
SFQ2 8:2333Field goal9–7
NYGQ2 7:29854Turnover9–7
SFQ2 4:34526Punt9–7
NYGQ2 1:551030Punt9–7
SFQ2 0:0100End of half9–7
NYGQ3 15:003-12Punt9–7
SFQ3 12:39359Touchdown16–7
NYGQ3 11:38734Field goal16–10
SFQ3 8:1800Turnover16–10
NYGQ3 8:1731Turnover16–10
SFQ3 6:4911Turnover on downs16–10
SFQ3 6:1118Turnover on downs16–10
SFQ3 5:26727Turnover on downs16–10
NYGQ3 1:49218Turnover on downs16–10
NYGQ3 0:4310Turnover on downs16–10
NYGQ3 0:3626Turnover on downs16–10
SFQ3 0:22113Punt16–10
SFQ4 15:0034Punt16–10
NYGQ4 13:59956Turnover16–10
SFQ4 9:40618Punt16–10
NYGQ4 6:18961Turnover16–10
SFQ4 4:43630Punt16–10
NYGQ4 1:0944Turnover on downs16–10
SFQ4 0:2900End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick15/2919310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore19955.00
Carlos Hyde9252.80
Colin Kaepernick8243.00
Vernon Davis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree38851
Anquan Boldin56530
Frank Gore23190
Steve Johnson1180
Vernon Davis1570
Carlos Hyde1150
Brandon Lloyd0200
Vance McDonald0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning22/4528015

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings18593.30
Andre Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle7151120
Odell Beckham Jr.613930
Larry Donnell36541
Preston Parker1290
Rashad Jennings4780
Andre Williams1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.06