Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.025
- 38.8%Success rate44.0%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.50CPOE-1.12
- 30.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.32Points / drive2.02
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 23/35 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jarryd Hayne | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 12 | 107 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 41/54 | 441 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 11 | 121 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 6 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Myles White | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.94