2015 · Week 5

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

27·30

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYG -7.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Giants wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapGiants
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.025
  • 38.8%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -3.50CPOE-1.12
  • 30.2%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.02
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NYG
SFQ1 15:00755Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 11:19876Field goal3–3
SFQ1 6:22611Punt3–3
NYGQ1 3:021476Touchdown3–10
SFQ2 12:15613Punt3–10
NYGQ2 8:02943Field goal3–13
SFQ2 3:571171Field goal6–13
NYGQ2 1:01766Turnover6–13
SFQ2 0:0500End of half6–13
NYGQ3 15:00628Punt6–13
SFQ3 12:561088Touchdown13–13
NYGQ3 8:00417Punt13–13
SFQ3 5:5144Punt13–13
NYGQ3 4:30761Touchdown13–20
SFQ3 1:141252Touchdown20–20
NYGQ4 11:491484Field goal20–23
SFQ4 4:29878Touchdown27–23
NYGQ4 1:45974Touchdown27–30
SFQ4 0:2139End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick23/3526220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde21934.41
Colin Kaepernick3237.70
Jarryd Hayne294.50
Reggie Bush1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin8121071
Torrey Smith22420
Bruce Ellington22390
Garrett Celek35261
Vance McDonald2390
Quinton Patton2360
Blake Bell1160
Carlos Hyde1540

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning41/5444131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings11464.20
Shane Vereen5244.80
Eli Manning11111.00
Odell Beckham Jr.133.00
Andre Williams300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.7111211
Shane Vereen88861
Dwayne Harris68720
Will Tye44480
Rueben Randle56420
Larry Donnell67351
Rashad Jennings44210
Geremy Davis11160
Myles White0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.94