Closing spread
SF -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.019
- 39.9%Success rate44.8%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.135
- 9.5%Explosive rate11.4%
- +0.30CPOE-2.68
- 36.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/31 | 188 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 11 | 73 | 2 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 27/39 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 17 | 101 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 9 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+0.53