2018 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Nothing filed.

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.019
  • 39.9%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.135
  • 9.5%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +0.30CPOE-2.68
  • 36.5%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.66
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
NYGQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:32519Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 10:13839Punt0–3
SFQ1 4:5634Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 4:03312Touchdown7–3
SFQ1 2:43865Touchdown7–10
NYGQ2 13:05514Punt7–10
SFQ2 10:40427Punt7–10
NYGQ2 8:351455Field goal10–10
SFQ2 1:501152Field goal10–13
NYGQ2 0:0200End of half10–13
SFQ3 15:001165Touchdown10–20
NYGQ3 8:09453Touchdown17–20
SFQ3 6:3641Punt17–20
NYGQ3 4:15434Field goal20–20
SFQ3 2:10521Turnover20–20
NYGQ4 14:5537Punt20–20
SFQ4 13:34522Punt20–20
NYGQ4 10:343-5Punt20–20
SFQ4 8:571054Field goal20–23
NYGQ4 2:461269Touchdown27–23
SFQ4 0:53544End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/3118830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley20673.40
Sterling Shepard12727.00
Wayne Gallman231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.411732
Evan Engram45460
Saquon Barkley45330
Corey Coleman11110
Sterling Shepard2391
Rhett Ellison1160
Bennie Fowler0100
Wayne Gallman0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens27/3925012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida171015.91
Alfred Morris9192.10
Nick Mullens210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle910830
Marquise Goodwin45690
Kendrick Bourne46330
Matt Breida34311
Trent Taylor11120
Dante Pettis46120
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+0.53