2025 · Week 9

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

34·24

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Giants wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapGiants
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.043
  • 48.5%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.040
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +5.72CPOE-1.30
  • 50.4%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.06
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001059Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 10:501268Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 4:1638Punt7–7
SFQ1 2:11885Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 13:08525Punt14–7
SFQ2 9:28638Punt14–7
NYGQ2 5:4333Punt14–7
SFQ2 3:3235Field goal17–7
NYGQ2 1:5533Punt17–7
SFQ2 0:381-5Turnover17–7
NYGQ2 0:3330Missed field goal17–7
SFQ2 0:1500End of half17–7
SFQ3 15:001241Field goal20–7
NYGQ3 9:55749Field goal20–10
SFQ3 6:4249Punt20–10
NYGQ3 4:53620Punt20–10
SFQ3 1:33976Touchdown27–10
NYGQ4 11:35860Touchdown27–17
SFQ4 7:52652Touchdown34–17
NYGQ4 4:13969Touchdown34–24
SFQ4 1:21313End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones19/2423520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey281063.81
Brian Robinson55310.61
Mac Jones441.00
Adrian Martinez1-1-1.00
George Kittle1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey56671
Jauan Jennings45411
Kendrick Bourne22340
George Kittle44320
Skyy Moore11210
Jordan Watkins11190
Luke Farrell1190
Demarcus Robinson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart24/3319120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaxson Dart8567.01
Devin Singletary8435.40
Tyrone Tracy Jr.5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton57620
Wan'Dale Robinson911460
Theo Johnson36271
Gunner Olszewski11241
Tyrone Tracy Jr.34190
Devin Singletary2280
Ray-Ray McCloud1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62