Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.043
- 48.5%Success rate42.9%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.72CPOE-1.30
- 50.4%Third-down rate39.6%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.48Points / drive2.06
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/24 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 28 | 106 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Martinez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Watkins | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 24/33 | 191 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 9 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62