Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play+0.179
- 38.2%Success rate51.6%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.205EPA / rush+0.034
- 7.6%Explosive rate13.8%
- +0.19CPOE+4.51
- 30.9%Third-down rate48.1%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 1.09Points / drive2.69
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/32 | 137 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/37 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 12 | 129 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.21