2023 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

12·30

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SF -10.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+7.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • -0.165EPA / play+0.179
  • 38.2%Success rate51.6%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.205EPA / rush+0.034
  • 7.6%Explosive rate13.8%
  • +0.19CPOE+4.51
  • 30.9%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.69
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ SF20–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
SFQ1 15:001464Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 8:441149Field goal3–3
SFQ1 3:18525Punt3–3
NYGQ1 0:4432Punt3–3
SFQ2 14:131377Touchdown3–10
NYGQ2 7:4930Punt3–10
SFQ2 6:131178Touchdown3–17
NYGQ2 1:40737Field goal6–17
SFQ2 0:1300End of half6–17
NYGQ3 15:00518Punt6–17
SFQ3 12:1433Punt6–17
NYGQ3 10:46315Touchdown12–17
SFQ3 10:001262Field goal12–20
NYGQ3 4:0846Punt12–20
SFQ3 2:13846Field goal12–23
NYGQ4 12:47411Punt12–23
SFQ4 11:00870Touchdown12–30
NYGQ4 5:5868Turnover12–30
SFQ4 3:3938Punt12–30
NYGQ4 3:1834Punt12–30
SFQ4 2:01311End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3213701
Tyrod Taylor0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida4174.31
Daniel Jones252.50
Gary Brightwell451.30
Tyrod Taylor122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton36320
Gary Brightwell23310
Parris Campbell66240
Wan'Dale Robinson45210
Darren Waller37200
Daniel Bellinger1180
Matt Breida3310
Isaiah Hodgins0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy25/3731020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey18854.71
Elijah Mitchell11423.80
Jordan Mason3113.70
Deebo Samuel Sr.122.00
Sam Darnold1-1-1.00
Brock Purdy4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.6121291
George Kittle79900
Christian McCaffrey55340
Jauan Jennings23310
Ronnie Bell22241
Elijah Mitchell3320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.9%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.21