Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:56 | 3 | -10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:42 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:50 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:09 | 15 | 65 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:40 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 10:35 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:59 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 6–3 |
| KC | Q2 3:01 | 11 | 64 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:29 | 2 | 3 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| KC | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–6 |
| LV | Q3 13:53 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 9–6 |
| KC | Q3 9:59 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 9–6 |
| LV | Q3 8:07 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 9–6 |
| KC | Q3 6:56 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 9–13 |
| LV | Q3 0:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–13 |
| KC | Q3 0:38 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 9–20 |
| LV | Q4 12:56 | 8 | 34 | Touchdown | 15–20 |
| KC | Q4 10:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 15–20 |
| LV | Q4 8:07 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:45 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 23–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 22/35 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.