Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.074
- 49.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.205EPA / dropback+0.031
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.308
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- 40.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.36
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:52 | 2 | 4 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:28 | 1 | 2 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 7:56 | 12 | 63 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q1 1:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 0:43 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q2 13:00 | 11 | 61 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q2 6:16 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 10–6 |
| ARI | Q2 3:31 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q2 1:21 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| ARI | Q2 0:39 | 4 | 5 | End of half | 17–6 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 88 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| ARI | Q3 14:40 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 24–9 |
| SEA | Q3 10:29 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 24–9 |
| ARI | Q3 8:08 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–9 |
| SEA | Q3 8:01 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 27–9 |
| ARI | Q3 6:48 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–16 |
| SEA | Q3 0:35 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 27–16 |
| ARI | Q4 13:29 | 4 | 63 | Field goal | 27–19 |
| SEA | Q4 12:09 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 33–19 |
| ARI | Q4 5:19 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 33–19 |
| SEA | Q4 3:07 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 33–19 |
| ARI | Q4 1:47 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 33–19 |
| SEA | Q4 0:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/20 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 173 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/48 | 334 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.36