Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.074
- 49.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.205EPA / dropback+0.031
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.308
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- 40.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.36
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/20 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 173 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/48 | 334 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.36